In this final part I’m coming back to the concept of a “Second Republic”, and I also look at tactical challenges we may be facing in the battle to get our democracy back.
Of course, we don’t need to call the result of the battle to restore our democracy the “Second Republic”. We don’t need to call it anything at all, as long as the result is the return of our democracy. But I do think this, or a similar term, will be useful to signal our intent to make a clean break with the captured present.
Likewise, I believe that once the new dispensation is established (when we have the votes necessary to change the powers of the president), it will be useful to designate it as such, as a reminder that we’re never going to go back to the practices of the dying days of our First Republic.
But whatever we call it, it’s unlikely we’d simply be able to stroll into it. The captors are desperate, they have their hands on the levers of state power, and they have access to massive amounts of money they’ve stolen from us.
Minister of State Security, David Mahlobo, chairing the Justice, Crime Prevention and Security cluster, briefs the media on 5 March 2017. Credit: GCIS.
The president has State Security fully behind him, as well as most senior police and Defence Force officers. In interviews with journalist Karima Brown, both Dr. Blade Nzimande[1] and SACP spokesperson Alex Mashilo[2] also claimed that a rogue unit operates out of the presidency.
In addition, our stolen money can hire a lot of unemployed youth, desperate for any form of income, to cause trouble in municipalities where opposition alliances are in power, as well as to generate general election-related violence.
That’s a formidable array of challenges for democrats, but that’s nothing compared to what we have on our side: justice.
Increasingly everyone with eyes can see the captors for the slimy gangsters that they are. That’s not a formula for electoral success.
For while it should be relatively easy for the captors to buy the ANC elections in December (they’ve got more money than ever, and our president is in the game since before the 2007 ANC elections, at that time still with Brett Kebble’s money), they don’t have enough to bribe voters in the 2019 elections.
But they do have enough to cause lots of mischief though, and my guess is that is exactly what they will try to do – what they are in fact most likely already doing.[3] [4] [5]
As I see it, the president’s modus operandi when he finds himself in a corner is to make as much trouble as possible in an attempt to force his adversaries into retreat, a bit like Pablo Escobar[6] did in Columbia in his day. Before his election as president of the ANC (2007) and the country (2009), this tactic worked wonders for him.
“Leading the CODESA talks” – a screen capture of the YCLSA discussion forum page on President Mandela. Mr. Zuma is on the far right of the image. Click to enlarge.
The man who personally participated in CODESA 1 and 2, the negotiations which led to our first democratic elections, and who endorsed the results, suddenly started singing: “bring me my machine gun”.
To fight against democracy? Apart from the fact that it showed the president’s utter lack of integrity, the threat did not make sense. It was simply designed to scare off his adversaries. I remember the dark murmurings of a “possible bloodbath” among my ANC friends at the time.
And it worked. The hapless former acting Director of Public Prosecutions, Mokotedi Mpshe, was made to believe the same thing, and he irregularly[7] dropped charges against Mr. Zuma. And us democrats didn’t say too much – we were just relieved that a “possible bloodbath” was averted.
Problem for the president is that once we’ve seen the movie, the element of surprise is gone. This time the Gupta poodles,[8] Black First Land First, leads the cast in the role of the irrational thugs that Mr. Malema’s ANC Youth League performed so well in the run-up to the 2009 elections. “Umshini wami” has been replaced with “radical economic transformation”.
But in my view the president can’t back up his threats, nor those of his proxies. I consider it highly doubtful whether the SA National Defence Force soldiers will suppress their fellow-citizens for the benefit of the captors, should push come to shove.
On the contrary, more likely. Soldiers have seen up close how the captors operate, putting them in harm’s way for dubious purposes[9] and generally treating them appallingly.[10]
Deputy Minister of Defence and Military Veterans Kebby Maphatsoe, president of the captor faction of the ANC military veterans. Credit: DoC, GovernmentZA.
The split in the ranks of the ANC’s military veterans,[11] with the vast majority of credible leaders coming out against the captors,[12] and the captor faction led by a war-time deserter[13] with no credibility, is a clear indication of the direction of the wind.
And it’s ultimately soldiers who will decide whether the population – their families and friends and communities in other words – are going to be suppressed by a handful of undemocratic slime-balls or not. Rank and file policemen and women will face the same choice.
Another significant problem for the captors is that it’s increasingly difficult for them to move money around.[14] Financial institutions don’t feel like being caught up in investigations and the quality of people with whom the captors work, do what they do strictly for money – should the money flows dry up, so would the support.
So in my view, the captors are wildly overplaying their hand. It’s not impossible that the collapse will come sooner than we think, although we have to prepare for the long haul, of course, and much mischief-making from the captors. But I believe we’re in a position to call their bluff.
And what choice do we have anyway? Bowing down and touching Gupta feet?[15]
Footnotes
Click on the footnote number to go back to where you were.
[1] http://www.702.co.za/articles/264590/nzimande-sacp-to-contest-under-reconfigured-alliance-or-go-solo-and-form-coalition
[2] http://www.702.co.za/articles/265567/sacp-rogue-unit-within-sa-s-intelligence-services-is-real
[3] EFF accuses Guptas of spying on Malema
[4] Business Day editor assaulted by Black First Land First
[5] Threats to Khoza come from cell number registered to BLF
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pablo_Escobar
[7] Spy Tapes: Mokotedi Mpshe breached cardinal legal rule
[8] Black Land leader begged Guptas for funds, e-mails show
[9] Central African Republic: Is this what our soldiers died for? This is just one of many similar reports raising questions about what exactly our soldiers are being deployed for.
[10] Diverted funds puts soldiers at risk
[11] Leadership of MK veterans is clearly divided
[12] http://www.mknationalcouncil.org.za
[13] “Kenny Maphatsoe is a sad little man” – Ronnie Kasrils
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