The question is: Is there any way to get a two-thirds majority in Parliament in the next few years, to also be able to change the powers of the president?
National Council of Provinces – a minimum of six out of nine provinces must approve changes to the Constitution. Credit: GCIS. (Click to enlarge.)
I’m afraid the chances aren’t looking good unless the ANC makes a U-turn. Even in the unlikely event that support for the ANC collapses and that a coalition of opposition parties gets a 66,6% majority in the National Assembly in 2019, changes to the Constitution also require that a minimum of 6 provinces support them. That’s even more unlikely.
So in the short term, say the next five years, the only way to get a super-majority is if the ANC swears off state capture. Many of you will dismiss this possibility out of hand, and I agree that the chances are slim that the democratic leaders who are still left in the ANC will succeed in purging what is currently the dominant faction (the captors) from the organisation. There’s in fact a reasonable chance that they will lose power in bought elections in December if they try too hard to evict the captors, or worse: become assimilated with the captor faction.
In other words, I think there’s a chance that all that remains of the ANC is an empty, burnt-out shell with vagrants roaming inside, trading on the former glory of the organisation while that rapidly diminishing “brand” still exists.
A split in the ranks of the ANC miltary veterans: the Veterans Council distanced themselves from the elective conference of the captor faction. The Council’s website is here. (Click to enlarge.)
The fact that the brave democrats of the MK Veterans National Council steering committee distanced themselves from the recent MK Veterans Association elections on the grounds of illegitimate delegates[1] – vote rigging, in other words – and that long-time captured stooges[2] like Deputy Minister of Defence and Military Veterans, Mr. Kebby Maphatsoe, were re-elected to lead the organisation[3] is probably a good indication of where things are headed for the ANC’s December elections.
But I don’t agree that it’s completely impossible that the ANC can still make a U-turn. The organisation would not have survived for over a century if it hadn’t proved itself capable of radical renewal from time to time, to face new conditions.
In this period when the party is in profound crisis – where it is, let me be frank, actually not much more than a state capture network masquerading as a political party – surprising things may still happen. It’s reached a stage where the good people that are still left in the ANC can no longer allow their names to be dragged through the mud by association with this entity.
So they have a choice between winning back control and resigning as members. And the identities of the stalwarts are very much tied up with that of the ANC. Many have spent a lifetime in the organisation, through thick and thin, some of it all-consuming and very dangerous.
That means they’ll fight hard to get back control. And they don’t have much time: no right-minded democrat in the ANC will be able to endorse another slimy, slate-based, money-drenched “election” this December, where the leadership of the organisation goes to the highest bidder, as it did for the past ten years.
It’s possible that the initiative by the ANC’s Chief Whip in Parliament, Mr. Jackson Mthembu, as well as others in the ANC, to establish an ad hoc committee of Parliament to deal with political funding, is an example of the kind of positive bold moves one may begin to see by those who want to save the ANC.[4]
I see journalist Melanie Verwoerd, who apparently still has close contact with her former parliamentary colleagues, has a different explanation,[5] but it will surprise me if Mr. Mthembu is doing the bidding of the captors. He has provided ample evidence of his courage and integrity in opposition to capture in the past.[6] [7]
Further encouraging signs comes from parliamentary committees where ANC parliamentarians are beginning to hold the captors of State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) to account.[8]. Not to mention the open revolt by the ANC’s Alliance partners, Cosatu and the SACP.
Needless to say that the scenario of the ANC returning to the democratic fold will be the best outcome by far, but I’m sure you’ll be relieved to learn that my proposal is not premised on that outcome. For while a comeback for the ANC is possible, there’s also a good chance that the organisation will, at least for the next number of years, be lost to democracy – an enemy of democracy, in fact, if it continues along its current path.
All the same, one would be missing a step not to explore the possibility of a swing in the ANC – it will make our job as democrats much easier and quicker.
And ANC leaders have a real situation on their hands at the moment. The Gupta email leak threatens to destroy the organisation. Actually, even though the ANC has faced situations like banning, the armed struggle, restrictions on communicating and organising openly and much more in the past, I suspect that this is the most severe crisis it has ever faced.
Because throughout its long history, its “brand” has always remained intact: the ANC stood for justice. That is what is now gone. Maybe this is a good time for a proposal? I think it’s at least worth a try, so one of the “sub-letters” that I include in Part 8 of my open letter is addressed to the ANC National Executive Committee (NEC). Another is addressed to ANC MPs ahead of the no-confidence vote scheduled for the 8th of August.
All of this will play out by December, but we can’t wait until then to act. Should the ANC return to the democratic fold, they’ll join the rest of us to help safeguard it.
And even if the ANC doesn’t manage to mend its ways, there’s still an opportunity for democrats. We should make it as easy as possible for ANC Alliance leaders who can no longer associate themselves with the party to defect.
Some of them will be icons of the first struggle for democracy – people who have really fought for justice, instead of using justice as an excuse to fight for themselves. Others may have strong organisational experience and/or experience in governance, for example.
But what all of them will have in common is the courage and integrity to turn their backs on what is usually well-paid, secure employment.
We may have to ignore a few warts here and there – after all, being part of the Alliance leadership during at least the past ten years, almost inevitably meant flouting some rules. That’s in fact in my view the most effective hold the captors, backed by much of our state’s intelligence services, have over Alliance leaders.
Min. Bathabile Dlamini could not be more overt in the direct threat she issued against members of the ANC NEC when she said that “all hell will break loose” if people speak about “what has happened to them” outside ANC structures, “because all of us there in the NEC have our smallanyana skeletons”.[9]
In Part 8.2, Open letter to opposition politicians, I touch on the importance for democrats to raise funds to pay for the costs of democracy while we get a system in place that will never ask us to pay from our pockets again, just to keep our democracy’s lights on. A good place to go for some of those funds would be to employ defectors as organisers for what will hopefully become the opposition coalition in the run-up to the 2019 elections.
In the next part of my letter I’m going to look at the chances for a simple majority for democrats in 2019.
Footnotes
Click on the footnote number to go back to where you were.
[1] MK council veterans boycott ANC’s national policy conference.
[2] #GuptaLeaks: How the Guptas picked up MK vets’ conference tab
[3] It’s President Kebby Maphatsoe, re-elected unopposed
[4] Ad hoc committee to consider increased funding for political parties.
[5] Who is Zuma really afraid of?
[6] Splits widen in ANC as Mthembu breaks ranks
[7] Zuma survives: The 18 NEC members who spoke out
[8] SABC inquiry adopts final report – editorial policy must be scrapped, Eskom-Tegeta hearing returns to Parliament amid #GuptaEmails leak
[9] Throwback Thursday: Bathabile Dlamini prepares us for ‘smallanyana skeletons’
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